Inside The Numbers

January 31st, 2012

Over the course of the off-season ideas and thoughts were bounced around in efforts of creating new and useful content for the upcoming season. The one thing that I kept coming back to was simply, data. The root of your preparations evolves around data. Just looking at where a driver finished in the correlative race of a previous year doesn’t tell you the whole story.

Brad Keselowski won the race at Kansas Speedway last June. You should pick him in 2012 to win there again, right? Not so fast my friends. He had a decent, but not  race-winning type car. He had an average running position of 11.56 and was only the 10th highest among driver rating (102.4). Again,he had good top-ten type car, but not race winning.  Brad led nine laps that day, and claimed the victory via fuel mileage strategy.

There is valuable information hidden within data.  Each week I’ll dive into the numbers by recapping past race(s). I’ll be  providing traditional and loop data from a few drivers over those races.  If there is ever a request for a driver for an upcoming race, feel free to send it my way via twitter. Until Daytona, I’ll leave you with a few 2011 season total stats:

Driver Rating: Ky Busch 104.1, Edwards 101, Johnson 99.1, Kenseth 98.9, J. Gordon 96.5, Stewart 96

Avg Start: Edwards 9.4, Kahne 11.3, Menard/Ku Busch 12.0, Newman 12.3

Avg Finish: Edwards 9.3, Harvick 11.5, Johnson 11.9, Stewart 12.0, Kenseth 12.2

Avg Mid Race Running Position: Kyle Busch 8.3, Kenseth 10.4, Edwards 11.6, Stewart 11.9, J. Gordon 12.4

Poles: Edwards, Biffle, Ku Busch, Kenseth, and Newman with three each

Wins: Stewart 5, Harvick/Ky Busch 4, Keselowski/J.Gordon/Kenseth 3

Quality Passes: Ky Busch 2219, Bowyer 2141, Ku Busch 2104, Menard 1975, Kenseth 1927

Leaders of % of laps in top15: Ky Busch 79.6, Edwards 74.6, Johnson 71.6, Kenseth 70.9, Harvick 70.1

Leaders of % of fastest laps: Johnson 8.9, Ky Busch/Edwards 8.1, J. Gordon 7.7, Stewart 6.5

Laps Led Leaders: Ky Busch 1455, Johnson 1115, J. Gordon 922, Stewart 913, Edwards 903

Most positions improved in the last 10 percent of laps: Allmendinger 134, Ambrose 85, Harvick 78, Edwards 76, Vickers 63

 

-David Rochester

 

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2012 Yahoo C-List Preview

January 29th, 2012

The C list this year is as thin as it’s ever been. However, it’s loaded with young promising drivers. Strategically, it’s going to be run whomever is entered that particular week. There is definitely a shortage of short-track drivers in this year’s Yahoo C list. I think our best bet there, is Aric Almirola.

Aric Almirola is shaping up to be the top guy in C this year.  It’s going to be crucial to use him at the right tracks. I see him as a short-track guy, but his crew chief Greg Erwin is more of an intermediate guy. I’ll try and avoid Aric until I figure out which tracks will be his strong suit. It will also take Almirola and Erwin some time to get acclimated to one another.

Aric has had success at Bristol in both The Nationwide Series and The Sprint Cup Series. He’s also been good at Nashville and Dover in Nationwide Races. So it’s pretty safe to say he like concrete tracks. Similarly, Almirola has been successful at The Milwaukee Mile and New Hampshire in Nationwide races. These two tracks are eerily similar, so one can make an assumption that he’ll do well at New Hampshire in Cup.

Since Almirola appears to be this year’s stud in C, we need to keep him off our teams at unpredictable tracks. That would be Daytona, Talldega, Watkins Glen, and Infineon. Aric is a decent road racer, but I don’t think we can afford to use him there. Aric is an easy nine start guy this year.

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Odds to Win the 2012 Sprint Cup Championship

January 26th, 2012

Here are the current odds to win the 2012 Sprint Cup from Bookmaker.eu:

JIMMIE JOHNSON
CARL EDWARDS
KYLE BUSCH
KEVIN HARVICK
TONY STEWART
DENNY HAMLIN
JEFF GORDON
KASEY KAHNE
MATT KENSETH
CLINT BOWYER
BRAD KESELOWSKI
DALE EARNHARDT JR
GREG BIFFLE
KURT BUSCH
RYAN NEWMAN
JEFF BURTON
JUAN MONTOYA
THE FIELD (ANY OTHER DRIVER)

Brad Keselowski is a bargain at +1200. There is no way he should have the same odds as Clint Bowyer.

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2012 Yahoo B-List Preview

January 22nd, 2012

I’m not sure we need 16 drivers in the B list, but I guess I see the logic.   If nothing else we should have plenty of options this year. Realistically, you could see as many as four or five of the guys below making the Chase in 2012.  Which means we won’t have to worry about saving starts much this year. This is the deepest B-list ever, literally and figuratively.

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2012 Yahoo A-List Preview

January 15th, 2012

I was like a kid on Christmas Morning when the Yahoo Fantasy NASCAR game was released on Thursday Night.  I immediately started tinkering with lineups for the upcoming season. I know things will change once a team’s build some momentum, but each Sunday for the next three weeks I’ll tell you how I see each Yahoo Group Shaping up.

In the A list, Yahoo could have cut it to four or five drivers and I’d still be plenty happy. I expect a big year from Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and even Joe Gibbs Racing if they can get some durability from their engine package. JGR has made the decision to use the Toyota Racing Development package. Maybe not as much steam under the hood, but much more durable, which isn’t saying much.

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