Most of our “10 Questions for 2010” focus on NASCAR in general, but FNP is a fantasy NASCAR site, so let’s get some fantasy discussion going. For those of us that play in Yahoo formats, predicting sleepers and duds is not very important because we are able to swap out drivers each week. But for people who play in Draft Leagues, assigning the correct value to drivers before the season is crucial to fantasy NASCAR success.
First, let me preface this by saying that the terms “sleepers” and “duds” are relative to perceived value. It is certainly possible for a big sleeper to not make the Chase or for a dud to actually make the Chase. For instance, anyone who drafted Marcos Ambrose was pleasantly surprised last year, even though he only finished 18th in the points. Ambrose’s value is tied into where he was drafted, so those who grabbed him in the high 20’s or early 30’s overall were rewarded with fantastic value. Conversely, Carl Edwards made the Chase last season, but most leagues saw Cousin Carl taken with one of the first three picks in the draft. Edwards’ zero wins and seven Top 10’s were far from Top 3 value, therefore making him a dud in 2009.
Sleepers:
1. Brad Keselowski
- As you can tell, I love Keselowski this season. He has a ton of talent, is in good equipment and has the attitude to run up front. Although he got a bad rap after his Nationwide feud with Denny Hamlin at the end of last season, I love seeing a young driver who is willing to be aggressive, mix it up and rattle some cages. Keselowski could slip into the early 20’s which would be the absolute steal of any fantasy NASCAR draft.
I’m not sure what to make of Keselowski this year. Like you say, PJ, I think he’s talented enough and with a good enough team to put a lot of strong runs together. At the same time I think he may be just too aggressive for this COT car which has shown itself to be very unforgiving for those who attempt to overdrive it. I see some good runs/finishes, some mediocre ones, and his fair share of damaged race cars in a season that’s largely inconsistent and unpredictable for us fantasy players. Also, while his personality is refreshing in today’s Nascar, I’ve heard that it hasn’t gone over too well with some of the veterans who view him as being too arrogant and cocky at this point in his young career. Even Jeff Burton was speaking against Keselowski on that. Brad may have to work on getting those guys’ respect out there before they give it in return. The veterans might be making it tough on him otherwise.
Either way, Brad should be a lot of fun to watch this year both on and off the track.
I would take Keselowski. I think he’s going to be really good this year.
would you take keslowski over d regan for the season?
I think Montoya will make the Chase. I just don’t think people should go bananas drafting him too early.
sleepers i agree on Truex, also like Logano and AJ Allmendinger. Busts is not Montoya but i could see him not making the chase. I think Newman is a good candidate as a dud as you mentioned.